Lincolnville Comprehensive Plan
Inventory: Local Economy
INTRODUCTION

This inventory will profile the local and regional economy. We will identify significant employment characteristics and interpret how they might impact on future economic conditions.

HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

During the 1800s, Lincolnville had a substantial economy based on industry and agriculture. Among the industrial enterprises were: saw, shingle and grist mills, lime kilns, barrel factories and shipyards. The Ducktrap River and other small streams were dammed to provide water power for many of these enterprises.

Forest and agricultural resources also played an important role in the economic development of Lincolnville. Lincolnville's economy historically was very dependent on the natural resources of Lincolnville. By the 20th century, blueberries, milk production and chickens all contributed to Lincolnville’ s economy.

After World War II, an improved transportation system and increased wealth provided conditions conducive to the development of tourism.

Note: Please refer to the History and Forest & Agriculture Inventories
for more information on this subject.

LINCOLNVILLE’S ECONOMY

Lincolnville’s economy cannot be examined as a separate entity. Economic forces of our region, state, and nation all play a critical role in determining Lincolnville’s economic future. By examining regional and local economic indicators, we can develop an economic profile of Lincolnville.

The 1980 census listed 593 Lincolnville residents as employed. The following table illustrates the types of industry in which Lincolnville’s residents were involved during 1980.

Labor Force by Type of Industry
Source: 1980 U.S. Census

Twice as many Lincolnville residents were employed in the construction trades as compared with Knox and Waldo Counties and the State. More residents were Where Lincolnville Residents Work: The 1980 Census recorded 291 Lincolnville residents working in Knox County, 204 in Waldo County and the remainder in other counties or out of state. Of the Waldo County total, 181 respondents identified Lincolnville as their place of work. This figure represented approximately 34% of the total Lincolnville work force identified in 1 980.also employed in the manufacture of durable goods. As was typical for all Maine regions, many residents were employed in the retail trade (1 5%) and in the manufacture of non-durable goods (1 4.7%). There were far fewer residents employed in public administration, in comparison to other areas.

More recently, 155 Lincolnville residents responded to the following question in the 1989 Growth Management Survey. “If employed, in which area do you work”? Their answers are outlined in the table below. This survey identified approximately the same percentage of respondents working in Lincolnville as the 1980 Census.

Work Location for Lincolnville Residents
Source:1989 Lincolnville Growth Management Survey

Although the Maine Department of Labor includes Lincolnville in the Belfast Labor Market area, the 1980 Census and the 1989 Survey clearly indicate that Lincolnville workers depend heavily on the Knox County job market.

The following table illustrates how Lincolnville residents get to work. It is interesting that 16.5 % of the respondents either worked at home or could walk to work. This trend may grow in the future, with better telecommunications and the development of home occupations hiring small numbers of outside workers.

How Lincolnville Residents Commute to Work
Source:1980 U.S. Census

Unemployment in Lincolnville: Lincolnville’s unemployment rate corresponds very closely to that of Waldo County. The following table illustrates historical unemployment rates for Lincolnville. In 1990 the Maine Department of Labor estimated Lincolnville had a labor force of 820 people with 66 collecting unemployment compensation.

Unemployment Rates (percentages)
Source: Maine Department of Labor

The figures show Lincolnville and Waldo County have some of the highest unemployment rates in the State. The unemployment rate in Lincolnville for the first quarter of 1991 is alarming. The construction industry and related businesses, such as real estate (which rode the crest of the speculation market until 1988), have now sunk into a serious recession. Food processing businesses in Rockland and Belfast have shut down or laid off many people. It is more difficult to tell how the selfemployed are faring, but many indicated having a difficult year in 1991. It remains an open question whether 1992 will be any better.

REGIONAL ECONOMY

Lincolnville lies in close proximity to both Belfast and Rockland. Although the Maine Department of Labor places Lincolnville in the Belfast Labor Market area, more Lincolnville workers actually work in the Rockland labor market.

The percentage of non-farm employment in the Belfast Labor Market closely parallels the State average. The following table illustrates this point. Unfortunately, growth in retail and tourist related businesses does not result in high income for most employees

Non-Farm Employment 1988
Source: Maine Department of Labor

This lack of well-paying jobs is reflected in the income characteristics for Waldo County. The county had the lowest per capita income of any county in Maine. The following table graphically illustrates this point. Further evidence of low incomes is reflected in results from the 1989 Growth Management Survey. Almost 40% of the respondents reported total family income of less than $20,000.

The following table shows that Waldo County experienced a very high rate of growth from 1984 through 1988. The start of the recession in 1989 substantially slowed this growth.

Total Taxable Sales (in thousands)
Source:Maine Dept. of Labor

CONCLUSION

In the report entitled “The Maine Economy : A Forecast to 1995” by the State Planning Office, job growth from 1985 to 1995 is anticipated mostly in service sectors, metals and electronic goods production. Additional growth areas were also predicted in printing, apparel making, medical services, tourist industries, recreation, retail and wholesale trade and credit/financial and professional services. Major declines were expected in all natural resource–based industries with the exception of furniture manufacturing

In the midst of the current serious economic recession one must question whether any economic growth is taking place in Lincolnville and Waldo County. In a small community like Lincolnville the loss of a business like Ducktrap Fish Farm will skew economic statistics.

At the present time, Lincolnville’s workforce is heavily dependent on the regional economy. The lack of a strong manufacturing and processing base in Waldo and Knox counties hurts Lincolnville’s workers.

It is likely that future economic growth in Lincolnville will come from small cottage-type industries and home occupations. If the Town wants to broaden its economic base, positive steps must be taken in that direction.