From the time of King David, governments have counted population periodically. From historical roots of simply counting heads, the demographic data obtained by the U.S. Census Bureau every 10 years provides a wealth of information for Federal, State and local governments.

The following pages of this inventory look at population from several different perspectives: historical fluctuations, age grouping and household information. From this information we should be able to draw some general projections about future growth.

From the 1850s to the eve of the Great Depression in 1930, Lincolnville and surrounding Mid-Coast communities showed a steady decline in population. Historians have offered several theories for this decline. One is the opening of the American West. The lure of fertile new land must have tempted many Lincolnville farmers to head west. The industrialization of New England's urban centers may also have caused some farmers to leave the land. Lincolnville's population dropped from 2174 persons in 1850 to a low of 811 persons in1920.
Note:Please refer to the Forest and Agricultural Inventory for more Information on this subject.

Some historians have attributed the slight increase in population between 1920 and 1930 to people's need to return to a simple agrarian lifestyle during the Great Depression. From 1930 to 1970 the population remained quite stable, increasing by slightly more than 100 persons.

During the 1970s and 1980s, Lincolnville's population grew steadily from 934 persons to 1809 persons, a growth rate of 93%, for the 20-year period. The current population is the historical high for this century. The following table illustrates Lincolnville's historical population.

Seasonal Population Seasonal populations are difficult to determine and fluctuate greatly. The Census does not tabulate seasonal populations, but does list 355 housing units or 31.1% of total housing units in Lincolnville for seasonal, recreational or occasional use. Waldo County listed 16.8% of housing in this category, and Knox County listed 18.6%. Several members of the Comprehensive Planning Committee also surveyed the entire Town, checking for seasonal units. They estimated more than 400 housing units were seasonal, with correspondingly fewer being year-round than the Census found. Approximately one-third of all housing in Lincolnville is seasonal, therefore a very significant amount. Most towns in Knox and Waldo counties, except for Friendship, Northport and the islands, have a smaller proportion of seasonal units.

Introduction: The U.S. Census provides a wealth of statistical information on population, analysis of which can assist town officials in making realistic choices for the years ahead.

Age and Distribution Characteristics: The following table illustrates age characteristics for Lincolnville’s population. Perhaps the most interesting statistic to note is the proportional increase in children under five. Should this trend continue, additional improvements to Lincolnville’s educational facilities may become necessary.

The 1990 Census identified 728 households in Lincolnville. Sixty-two per cent of the households were family households and slightly over 29% were non-family households. Examples of non-family households are persons living alone or two unrelated people living together. The table below illustrates the makeup of household information.

When compared with figures for Knox and Waldo counties, Lincolnville has more people living as family units, but has fewer families with only one adult present. Of those 65 and older living alone, Lincolnville’s rate was comparable to Waldo County’s rate, but Knox County had far more older people living alone.

It is also important to note that household size has been decreasing steadily in the United States. Lincolnville is no exception, with a household size decreasing from 2.99 in 1970 and 2.68 in 1980 to the present 2.48. These declining rates are significant for a number of reasons. The figures illustrate that the demand for housing is out-pacing population growth. There was a 64.9% increase in households from 1970 to 1980 and a 38.4% increase in households from 1980 to 1990. Not only are new families and individuals moving to Lincolnville, but Lincolnville's own residents are requiring more housing.

The other significant factor indicated by these statistics is that families generally include fewer children than they did in the past. Dwelling units with two or three bedrooms can fulfill the needs of many of today's families.

Group Quarters The Census definition of group quarters includes institution-alized quarters such as nursing homes and correctional facilities, and non-institutionalized quarters such as large rooming houses, group homes, emergency shelters and dormitories.

Although no people were listed in the 1990 Census as living in group quarters in Lincolnville, Hunt's Boarding home had six senior citizens and three Hunt family members. Waldo County had 1.2% of its population living in group quarters. Knox County had 3.2% of its population living in group quarters.

Educational Attainment The following table illustrates that in 1980, 21.2% of Lincolnville’s adult population had less than a full high school education. This was a higher level of educational attainment than that achieved by residents of Waldo County, Knox County, or the State of Maine as a whole. Lincolnville also had a higher percentage of college-educated citizens than the general population of Maine.

Lincolnville experienced a very high rate of population growth during the past 20 years. From 1970 to 1990 Lincolnville’s population grew by almost 94%. Whether this trend continues depends on a myriad of socio-economic factors.

One methodology that can be used to project future population is to examine recent trends in building permit applications. During the past 10 years, an average of 30 permits per year were granted for new year-round dwelling units. Year-round dwelling units included single family residents, mobile homes, subsidized multi-unit housing and condominiums. Assuming that the average household size will decline to approximately 2.4 people per unit during the next 10 years one could multiply average yearly housing starts (30) by people per unit (2.4). This gives an average annual increase in population of 72. Projected over a 10 year period, it is estimated that Lincolnville will have a population of 2,529 by 2002. A host of factors could vary this figure by 25% in either direction.

In projecting which age groups will grow the most, several general conclusions can be drawn. High growth communities such as Lincolnville often indicate a younger population. Young families will continue to move to Lincolnville as they have during the last 20 years. Young and middle-age adults will continue modest population increases. The lack of nursing homes and medical facilities within a short distance may slow growth in the over-75 age group.

It seems likely that the Mid-Coast region will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than it has for the last 20 years. Lincolnville likewise will continue to see population growth, but at a slower level than the past decade.